Mathematical Modelling

The Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare has applied mathematical modelling to support decision-making in the HPV field for many years. More than 15 years ago, when evaluating the introduction of the HPV vaccination programme for girls, the analysis already considered both screening and vaccination as complementary strategies for cervical cancer prevention.

HPV Vaccination

To fully realise the benefits of HPV vaccination, screening programmes must be adapted to reflect the substantially lower cervical cancer risk in vaccinated cohorts. Without such adaptation, the balance of harms and benefits in screening may shift undesirably, for example by increasing the relative burden of follow-up examinations or unnecessary treatments.

Lowering Cervical Cancer Risk

Adapting screening requires consideration not only of vaccinated women but also of unvaccinated women. HPV vaccination reduces viral circulation at the population level, thereby lowering cervical cancer risk in both groups. In the EUCanScreen project, we apply modelling to identify screening protocols that are appropriate for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals within vaccinated cohorts, under varying levels of vaccination coverage and the resulting levels of indirect protection among unvaccinated women.

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